How to Thrive When 71% of Agents Aren't Closing Deals (2026)
May 05, 2026How to Thrive When 71% of Agents Aren't Closing Deals (2026)
A Redfin survey put a number on what every agent already feels at the office on Monday morning — most of the people in the room aren't actually closing deals. Here's exactly what the agents in the other 29% do differently, from someone who still does it every week.
A new agent on my team last year told me she was thinking about getting out. Eight months in, she'd had two closings — both from family. She'd watched 14 of her brokerage classmates quit since they were licensed together. She felt like the dumbest person in the room. I told her: you're not the dumbest person in the room — you're the most honest. Most of them are still here. They just aren't closing either.
Then a Redfin survey hit the news in early 2025 and the headline confirmed what every team leader has known for years: 71% of active real estate agents didn't close a single deal in 2024. Not a slow year. Zero. The story went viral, NAR pushed back with their own data, and the truth turned out to be somewhere in between — which I'll break down in a minute. But the takeaway for working agents is the same either way: most people with a license aren't actually doing this job. The agents who are closing — the 29% — aren't smarter, more connected, or luckier. They're more systematic.
I'm Saad Jamil, founder of Jamil Academy. I've closed $500M+ in volume and 800+ homes in Northern Virginia, and I still actively sell today — I'm not a retired coach lobbing theory from the sidelines. In the next 13 minutes I'll show you what separates the agents who thrive from the agents who quit, what the 71% number actually means, and the exact 90-day comeback plan I give my own team members when their pipeline goes dry. By the end you'll have a system you can run starting Monday.
Is the 71% statistic actually real?
Yes — and no. A 2024 Redfin survey of 1,400+ active agents found 71% closed zero deals last year, while NAR's separate Member Profile shows only 5% of dues-paying members had zero transactions. Both are technically true: there are roughly 2 million licensees but only ~1.5 million NAR Realtors, and the gap between licensed and producing is exactly the 71% you keep hearing about.
The internet loves a clean villain stat, so let's separate fact from clickbait. The Redfin survey that started the panic was real, conducted in late 2024, and is one of the largest agent-perception studies of the year. The NAR pushback is also real — NAR's Member Profile shows the median Realtor closed 10 deals in 2024 with only 5% reporting zero transactions. So which one's lying?
Neither. They're measuring different populations. Redfin surveyed licensed agents — anyone with an active license who calls themselves a Realtor. NAR's profile measures dues-paying members who self-report as professionally active. The gap between those two groups is enormous, and that's the entire story.
There are roughly 2 million licensees in the US and ~1.5 million NAR members. A huge portion of license holders are part-timers, recently licensed, semi-retired, or holding the license for referrals while doing another job full-time. The 71% headline is true if you count everyone with a license. The 5% headline is true if you count only people who treat this as a career. Both numbers expose the same uncomfortable truth: the difference between "having a license" and "running a business" is the entire game. Once you stop comparing yourself to the licensee average and start comparing yourself to the producing professional, the path forward gets a lot clearer.
Why are most real estate agents not closing deals?
Most agents don't close deals because they don't have a daily lead-generation system, can't articulate their value post-NAR settlement, follow up inconsistently with the leads they do get, and treat real estate as a job they show up to instead of a business they run. The problem isn't the market — it's the absence of repeatable inputs.
After mentoring agents across 800+ closings, I see the same five patterns in agents who can't break out of the bottom 71%. They aren't market problems. They aren't talent problems. They're system problems — and they're fixable.
1. No daily lead-generation block. They wake up and "work on real estate." That's not a plan. The agents I see closing have a non-negotiable two-hour prospecting block on the calendar five days a week. Same time. Every day. Most agents are busy. Producers are intentional.
2. They can't explain their value out loud. Post-NAR settlement, you have to sit across from a buyer and justify what you're worth in writing. Most agents can't. They mumble through the buyer agreement instead of selling it. That conversation alone separates the producing 29% from the rest.
3. Broken follow-up. NAR data shows the average home shopper takes 8+ weeks before they're ready to act. Most agents follow up twice and quit. The producers I work with run a structured 21-touch cadence over 90 days. That's not a hack — that's the entire job.
4. Reliance on inbound leads they don't actually convert. Agents drop $1,000+/month on Zillow leads with a 1-2% conversion rate, then wonder why they're broke. Buying leads without a conversion system is paying for the problem.
5. Confusing activity with productivity. Posting a Reel, updating a CRM, and re-organizing your hot list isn't lead generation. It's procrastination dressed up. Lead generation is a conversation with a human being who could hire you. Anything else is busywork.
The 7 things top producers do that struggling agents don't
Top producers protect a daily lead-gen block, run a written follow-up cadence, treat their database as their #1 asset, track conversion ratios (not just deals), invest in coaching, master scripts cold, and spend marketing dollars on owned channels — not just rented platforms. None of these are talent. All of them are habits.
When I look at the agents on my team who break six figures vs. those who plateau, the differences are embarrassingly mundane. Producers don't have secret tactics. They have boring habits they refuse to skip. Here are the seven I see every single time, ranked by impact.
Daily Lead-Gen Block
Two non-negotiable hours of prospecting calls, texts, or door knocks five days a week. Same time. Calendar-blocked. Producers protect this like it's a doctor's appointment because it is — for their business.
Written Follow-Up Cadence
A structured 21-touch sequence over 90 days for every new lead — text, call, email, video. Written down. Scheduled in CRM. Run with or without motivation. Most struggling agents follow up twice and quit.
A Working Database
Producers nurture 200-500 contacts in their sphere monthly. Quarterly market emails. Closing anniversary cards. Birthday texts. The database is their #1 asset — not Zillow, not paid ads, not social.
Tracked Conversion Ratios
Producers know how many calls = how many appointments = how many contracts. Struggling agents only know "deals closed." When you track ratios, the broken link in the chain becomes obvious.
Coaching or Mentorship
Almost every top 1% agent I know has someone they report to. Not motivation — accountability. The agents in the 71% are figuring it out alone. The ones thriving are paying to skip the figuring-out part.
Mastered Scripts
Scripts for buyer consultations, listing presentations, FSBO calls, expired calls, and objection handling — memorized and rehearsed weekly. Producers role-play. Strugglers wing it. The difference is appointments booked.
Owned Marketing Channels
Personal website, email list, YouTube channel, owned content. Renting attention from Zillow or Meta only works while the budget runs. Producers build assets that compound for years after the spend stops.
How much should you actually spend on lead generation?
A working agent should spend roughly 10-20% of expected gross commission income on lead generation, with most of that going to relationship-based channels first (database, sphere, mail) and the rest to paid lead sources only after a conversion system is in place. NAR data shows the median Realtor spent $8,010 on business expenses in 2024 — vehicle, admin, and lead gen combined.
Most agents in the 71% have it backwards: they spend big on rented leads (Zillow, Realtor.com) before they have any system to convert them. Then they're broke and blame the leads. Here's the budget breakdown I give every agent on my team — based on a $50K target GCI year.
| Channel | Annual budget | % of GCI |
|---|---|---|
| Database / sphere touches (mail, gifts, events) | $2,000 – $3,000 | 4 – 6% |
| Coaching / training / mastermind | $1,200 – $2,400 | 2 – 5% |
| CRM, dialer, scheduling tools | $600 – $1,200 | 1 – 2% |
| Owned marketing (website, email, content) | $600 – $1,200 | 1 – 2% |
| Paid leads (only after conversion system exists) | $0 – $3,000 | 0 – 6% |
Notice what's at the top of that list — the cheapest, highest-ROI channel. Your database. Your sphere. The 200 people who already know you. Most agents in the bottom 71% skip this because it doesn't feel like "real" lead gen. The producing 29% start there and never stop.
Stuck at zero closings? Start with the free Real Estate Kickstart eBook.
The exact playbook I give every new agent who joins my team — the systems, scripts, and lead-generation foundations that turn licensed agents into producers. No credit card. 100% free download.
GET MY FREE E-BOOK →The 90-day comeback plan for agents stuck at zero
In 90 days an agent stuck at zero can realistically book 4-8 listing or buyer appointments by running a daily 2-hour prospecting block, a database reactivation campaign in month one, a structured 21-touch follow-up cadence on every new lead, and weekly script practice. The plan replaces hope with inputs you can actually control.
When an agent on my team is stuck, this is the exact 90-day reset I run with them. It's not glamorous. It works because it's relentless about inputs over outcomes — the only thing you can actually control on day one.
Days 1-30: Reactivate what you already have.
Pull every contact you've ever met. Phone, email, address. Aim for 200+. Send a personal text or email to the top 100 — not a mass blast, individually written. "Hey, just a quick check-in. I've been doing real estate for [X] now and wanted to reach out — anyone in your world thinking about buying or selling this year I should know about?" Track responses. Most agents skip this step their entire career and wonder where their first deal is coming from.
Days 31-60: Daily prospecting block + script mastery.
Two hours a day, five days a week, calendar-blocked. Pick one channel: circle prospecting around just-solds, FSBOs, expireds, or sphere check-ins. Practice your script for 15 minutes daily — out loud. Record yourself. Run mock calls with a teammate. This is the month most agents quit. Don't.
Days 61-90: Layer in a paid channel + tighten the funnel.
Now that you have organic activity, add ONE paid channel — direct mail farm, Facebook ad, or one Zillow zip code. Just one. Track every lead source. By day 90 you should have between 20-40 active conversations and 4-8 booked appointments. That's not a guess — it's the math of consistent input. Skip a single week and the math stops working.
How to build a pipeline that doesn't break
A durable real estate pipeline runs on three lead sources, not one — typically a sphere/database channel, an active prospecting channel (circle calls, FSBO, expired), and a content or paid channel. Single-source pipelines collapse the moment that source dries up. Producers diversify across three so no one channel can take them down.
The agents I see fail in down markets share one trait: their pipeline depended on a single channel. Zillow only. Open houses only. Sphere only. When the market shifts or the platform changes its rules, they have nothing. The agents thriving have three channels running at all times — different speeds, different costs, different timelines, but always three.
Channel 1 — Sphere/Database (long, free, high-trust): Past clients, friends, family, former coworkers. Slow to produce, but referrals close at 3-5x the rate of cold leads. Touch this list quarterly minimum.
Channel 2 — Active prospecting (medium, sweat equity): Circle prospecting around just-solds, FSBO calls, expired calls, door knocking, open houses. You control the input. The cost is time, not money — perfect for agents without a budget.
Channel 3 — Content or paid (slow build, scalable): Direct mail farm, YouTube, Instagram, paid ads, SEO blog. Takes longer to ramp but compounds. The first two channels feed today; this one feeds 12 months from now. Both matter. Producers run all three at once.
Thriving in real estate is a system, not a strategy. The Top Realtor Playbook is the system.
The 71% don't have a system. The 29% do — and the Top Realtor Playbook walks you through the same 4-module system I've used to close 800+ homes: Operational Excellence, Script Mastery, Lead Generation Secrets, and Marketing Mastery. Lifetime access, downloadable templates, and a 14-day money-back guarantee.
Explore the Top Realtor Playbook →The KPIs to track when you don't have closings yet
When closings are at zero, track leading indicators instead: prospecting conversations per week, appointments booked, listing presentations delivered, and database touches sent. These predict closings 60-90 days out. Tracking only "deals closed" when you have none is how agents quit — leading indicators show you're winning before the dollars arrive.
If your only metric is "closings this month" and you have zero, you're going to feel like a failure every Monday. That's the trap. Producers track leading indicators — the inputs that mathematically produce closings — so they can win the week even when the bank account doesn't reflect it yet.
| KPI | Weekly target (full-time) | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Live conversations | 25 – 50 | Closings come from conversations, not posts |
| Appointments booked | 3 – 5 | Listings come from listing appointments |
| Database touches | 15 – 25 | Referrals are the highest-converting source |
| New leads added to CRM | 10 – 20 | Pipeline expansion = future closings |
| Script practice sessions | 3 – 5 | Conversion rate compounds with reps |
Hit those numbers for 90 days and the closings will follow. It's the closest thing to a guarantee in this business.
Know what you'll actually take home before you set your income goal.
Targeting $100K GCI doesn't mean $100K in your pocket. Once you factor in your brokerage split, fees, and caps, the real take-home number changes everything about how many deals you actually need. Use the Commission Split Calculator to see your true net before you build the plan.
Calculate Your Real Take-Home →7 mistakes that keep agents in the bottom 71%
I've watched hundreds of agents start, struggle, and quit. The pattern repeats. These seven mistakes are the loudest signals that an agent is going to wash out — and the fastest things to fix. Run this list against yourself honestly. The honesty is the work.
Treating it like a job
Showing up to the office and "being available" isn't a business. Real estate is a sales business that requires a salesperson's calendar, not an employee's.
No daily prospecting block
"I'll do it when I'm not busy" — and you're never not busy. Two hours, calendar-blocked, same time every day, or it doesn't happen.
Buying leads with no system
Spending $1,000+/month on Zillow without a written follow-up cadence is paying to lose. Build the conversion system first, then turn on the spend.
Ignoring the database
Past clients and SOI close 3-5x higher than cold leads. If you're chasing strangers while ignoring your sphere, you're playing the game on hard mode.
Quitting follow-up too early
Most leads need 8-12 touches before they're ready. Most agents quit at 2-3. The deals are sitting in the leads you already have — go work them.
Skipping scripts
"I just want to be authentic." Authentic is what you sound like AFTER you've practiced. Without scripts, every call is improv — and improv has a 1% close rate.
No coach or mentor
Trying to crack the top 29% with no one to report to, no one calling out blind spots, and no system to copy is the longest, most expensive way to learn this business.
Producer mindset vs. licensee mindset
A licensee waits for the market, the brokerage, or a lead to make their week happen. A producer creates the inputs that make the week happen. The biggest difference between the 71% and the 29% isn't tactics — it's whether you treat real estate as a business you run or a credential you carry.
Here's the side-by-side I share with every agent in the first call. You don't have to be in one column or the other forever — but on any given week you're operating from one or the other, and the column you're operating from is producing your results.
| Licensee mindset (the 71%) | Producer mindset (the 29%) |
|---|---|
| "The market is slow" | "What conversations am I having today?" |
| Waits for leads from the brokerage | Builds proprietary lead channels |
| "Nothing's working" | "Which input do I need to fix?" |
| Tracks only closings | Tracks conversations, appointments, contracts |
| Avoids prospecting calls | Calendar-blocks them daily |
| Spends without a system | Builds the system, then turns on spend |
Read that table once a week. Most agents don't lack tactics — they lack a clean mirror. The shift from licensee to producer happens in the brain before it shows up in the bank account.
Your 30-day reset plan
If you've read this far, you're not the agent who's going to forget this in a week. Here's exactly what to do in the next 30 days. No more research. No more "I'll start Monday." Just inputs.
Week 1: Pull your full database. Goal: 200+ contacts. Personal text or email to your top 50 — individually written. Track responses in a spreadsheet.
Week 2: Calendar-block two hours of prospecting daily, M-F. Pick ONE channel: circle prospecting, FSBO, expired, or sphere check-ins. Don't switch.
Week 3: Write down (or copy) a 21-touch follow-up cadence. Load it into your CRM. Apply it to every new lead going forward — no exceptions.
Week 4: Track your 5 KPIs (conversations, appointments, database touches, new leads, script practice). Review weekly. Adjust the broken link in the chain.
Then the hard part: do it for 90 days without quitting. That's the entire game. Most agents won't. The ones who do break out of the bottom 71% — usually within a single quarter. I've seen it happen on my own team more times than I can count.
Written by Saad Jamil — Founder of Jamil Academy and Top 1% Realtor nationwide with $500M+ in career sales and 800+ homes closed in Northern Virginia. Saad shares the exact systems he uses daily to help agents become top producers. View Saad's Zillow profile →
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Frequently asked questions
Did 71% of real estate agents really not close a single deal in 2024?
Yes — and the source is a 2024 Redfin survey of 1,400+ active agents that found 71% reported zero closed sides for the year. NAR's Member Profile shows a different number (only 5% of dues-paying members had zero transactions), and both are accurate because they survey different populations: Redfin includes all licensees, NAR includes only members who self-report as professionally active. The honest takeaway is that the gap between licensed and producing is enormous, and bridging it is what separates the 29% from everyone else.
How long does it realistically take a new agent to close their first deal?
For agents running a daily lead-generation block and following up consistently, the first deal typically lands within 60-120 days of going active. Without a daily system, it can take 12+ months — or never. The variable isn't talent or market conditions; it's whether the agent runs structured prospecting and follow-up from day one. Plan for 90 days of consistent input before evaluating whether your system is working — quitting before that point is why most new agents burn out.
Should I quit real estate if I haven't closed a deal in my first year?
Not necessarily — but you should honestly audit your inputs. If you've been running a daily prospecting block, following a written 21-touch follow-up cadence, and tracking conversations/appointments for 90+ days with zero result, something deeper is broken (likely scripts, market fit, or brokerage support) and a coach can identify it fast. If you haven't actually been running those inputs, the issue isn't whether to quit — it's that you haven't actually started. Run the 90-day plan with full intensity before making the decision.
Are paid leads (Zillow, Realtor.com) worth it for new agents?
Generally no — not until you've built a conversion system. New agents who buy leads before they have scripts, follow-up cadence, and tracked KPIs typically convert at 0.5-1.5%, which makes the ROI brutal. The sequence that works is: build database/sphere outreach first, layer in active prospecting (circle, FSBO, expired), master scripts, install a written follow-up cadence, then turn on paid leads as the third or fourth channel. Buying leads to "skip" the foundation work is the most common reason new agents go broke fast.
What's a realistic first-year income for a real estate agent who's running a real system?
According to NAR's 2025 Member Profile, the median income for agents with 2 or fewer years of experience is around $8,100 — but that average is dragged down by the 71% who aren't actively producing. Agents running a daily prospecting block, structured follow-up, and consistent script practice realistically close 6-12 transaction sides in year one, putting first-year GCI in the $40K-$90K range depending on average sale price. Year two typically doubles when the database compounds and referrals start flowing. The income difference between top quartile and bottom quartile new agents isn't 2x — it's often 10x — and it's almost entirely a function of system, not talent.
© 2026 Jamil Academy. All rights reserved. Content is educational and reflects current real estate practices. Statistics referenced from Redfin's 2024 Real Estate Professionals Survey and the National Association of REALTORS® 2025 Member Profile. Always verify current data and consult a qualified professional for business-specific guidance.
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